Morphotectonic and paleoseismological studies of Late Holocene deformation along the Primorsky Fault, Baikal Rift

Abstract The Baikal Rift is the largest Cenozoic continental rift in Asia and has developed at the boundary between the Siberian craton and a collage of microplates composing the Amurian lithospheric plate. GPS data show that the Amurian plate moves southeastward at a rate of 3–4 mm/yr with respect to stable Eurasia but the slip rates along the main faults that control the opening of basins within the Baikal Rift System, are still poorly quantified. The recent graben system of the Olkhon region of the central Baikal Rift is a key example for studying of synrift faulting. We discovered a previously unknown paleoseismic structure in the course of our morphometric study of the Primorsky fault scarp, one of the youngest grabens within the Baikal Rift. Detailed topographic mapping of the deformation area and trenching across the fault scarp revealed two paleoseismic events responsible for scarp formation. Dating of organic remnants found in the trench walls allowed us to estimate a late Holocene age for the paleoearthquakes and bracket the vertical slip rates along the Primorsky Fault to between 0.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr (min) and 0.9 ± 0.2 mm/yr (max) over the last ~2.5 kyr. The geomorphological and paleoseismological data, in combination with the analysis of recent seismicity and horizontal geodetic rates, suggest that the Primorsky Fault has accumulated elastic stress with the potential for a ~M 6.6 earthquake. Large earthquakes of this magnitude have occurred at least twice on the investigated fault segment during the last ~1.4 kyr.