Factors associated with opioid cessation: a machine learning approach

People with opioid use disorder (OUD) can stop using opioids on their own, with help from groups and with treatment, but there is limited research on the factors that influence opioid cessation. We employed multiple machine learning prediction algorithms (LASSO, random forest, deep neural network, and support vector machine) to assess factors associated with ceasing opioid use in a sample comprised of African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs) who met DSM-5 criteria for mild to severe OUD. Values for several thousand demographic, alcohol and other drug use, general health, and behavioral variables, as well as diagnoses for other psychiatric disorders, were obtained for each participant from a detailed semi-structured interview. Support vector machine models performed marginally better on average than those derived using other machine learning methods with maximum prediction accuracies of 75.4% in AAs and 79.4% in EAs. Subsequent stepwise regression analyses that considered the 83 most highly ranked variables across all methods and models identified less recent cocaine use (p