Clinicians’ Overestimation of Their Geographic Service Area

In this study, we evaluated family physicians’ ability to estimate the service area of their patient panel—a critical first step in contextual population-based primary care. We surveyed 14 clinicians and administrators from 6 practices. Participants circled their estimated service area on county maps that were compared with the actual service area containing 70% of the practice’s patients. Accuracy was ascertained from overlap and the amount of estimated census tracts that were not part of the actual service area. Average overlap was 75%, but participants overestimated their service area by an average of 166 square miles. Service area overestimation impedes implementation of targeted community interventions by practices.