Analysis of prognostic factors after the first relapse of Hodgkin's disease in 187 patients

BACKGROUND Patients in the first relapse of Hodgkin's disease comprise a heterogeneous group regarding their primary treatment and their clinical characteristics. Because therapeutic options for these patients vary from radiotherapy to combined modality or high dose therapy, we wanted to identify the prognostic factors that would optimize the treatment choice among the different options available. METHODS Patients (n = 187) who relapsed for the first time after the end of treatment were included. Characteristics at diagnosis were: male to female ratio: 1.5; Stage III and IV: 59%; B symptoms: 60%; and mediastinal involvement: 76%, bulky in 29%. Chemotherapy (27%) or combined modality (73%) was prescribed. Relapses occurred 3 to 192 months (median: 35 mos) after the end of treatment; for 39% this interval was <12 months. Characteristics at relapse were: Stage III and IV: 59%; and B symptoms: 46%. At first relapse, treatment was conventional (chemo- and/or radiotherapy) in 44% and intensive (high dose therapy with stem-cell transplantation) in 56%. These regimens led to 85% complete responses; and 15% were refractory. RESULTS The median follow-up after relapse was 31 months and the median time to second progression was 20 months. The median freedom from second failure (FF2F) was 44 months and the median survival was 72 months. All factors were analyzed for survival and FF2F. Patients given intensive treatment had more adverse prognostic factors at relapse (B symptoms, early relapse, and disseminated relapse). Multivariate analysis identified 2 significant prognostic factors: interval end of treatment-relapse <12 months (<10−4) and Stage III and IV at relapse (P = 0.0013). For patients with at least one adverse prognostic factor, high dose therapy gave the best survival results. CONCLUSIONS Using 2 simple prognostic factors, (interval end of treatment-relapse <12 months and Stage III/IV at relapse), patients in first relapse of Hodgkin's disease can be classified into 3 significant prognostic groups in terms of survival and FF2F. Cancer 1996;78:1293-9.