Preoperative Alfa-Fetoprotein and Fibrinogen Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation Regardless of the Milan Criteria: Model Development with External Validation

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Patient selection is critically important in improving the outcomes of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma. The aim of the current study was to identify biochemical measures that could affect patient prognosis after liver transplantation. METHODS: A total of 119 patients receiving liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma were used to construct a model for predicting recurrence. The results were validated using an independent sample of 109 patients from independent hospitals. All subjects in both cohorts met the Hangzhou criteria. RESULTS: Analysis of the discovery cohort revealed an association of recurrence with preoperative fibrinogen and AFP levels. A mathematical model was developed for predicting probability of recurrence within 5 years: Y = logit(P) = -4.595 + 0.824 ×fibrinogen concentration (g/L) + 0.641 × AFP score (1 for AFP 400ng/ml). At a cutoff score of -0.85, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.819 in predicting recurrence (vs. 0.655 when using the Milan criteria). In the validation cohort, this model had reasonable performance in predicting 5-year overall survival (68.8% vs. 28.1% in using the -0.85 cutoff, p< 0.001) and disease-free survival (65.7% vs. 25.9%, p< 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity were 77.0% and 62.5%, respectively. The AUC of this newly developed model was similar to that with the Milan criteria (0.698 vs. 0.678). Surprisingly, the DFS in patients with score <= -0.85 under this model but not meeting the Milan criteria was similar to that in patients meeting the Milan criteria (53.8% vs. 60.0%, p=0.380). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative AFP and fibrinogen are useful in predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation.