Spatially explicit economic effects of non-susceptible pests' invasion on Bt maize
2019
Maize expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ab toxin (Bt maize) provides a more effective control of corn borers
than the use of insecticides. Yet, the spatial expansion of Bt maize may offer ideal ecological conditions for
the development and spread of secondary pests, i.e. pests not susceptible to the expressed toxin. This paper develops
a bio-economic, spatially explicit population model to analyse the spread and economic consequences of
a secondary pest outbreak. Results show that the present use and even an eventual expansion of Bt maize can be
economically and environmentally advantageous as it would decrease insecticide usage intensity. However, we
show that caution is required when considering its widespread use. If a pest outbreak is not identified and dealt
with at an early stage, it could lead to severe economic impacts even if insecticides are used in combination with
the Bt maize. We further discuss potential policy and subsequent management strategies to address this issue.
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