Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China.

The impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River Basin (TRB), the largest inland river basin in China, were assessed using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrological model. The Delta method, a relatively simple and widely used method for constructing regional climate change scenarios for impact assessment, was used to project climate change scenarios based on GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Projected meteorological variables for these two scenarios were inputted to the VIC model to simulate hydrological changes. The impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration and runoff in the catchment were assessed. Results showed that the runoff in winter exhibited a decreasing trend. As runoff in winter is mainly generated from snowmelt, this could have resulted from a decreasing trend in air temperature. Runoff in spring exhibited an increasing trend, which may be beneficial to agriculture. Overall, runoff in the study area showed a slight decreasing trend, while evapotranspiration exhibited an increasing trend. These results imply that water availability in the TRB is likely to become more critical in the future. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.