Prospects of Space Weather Prediction Based on Solar Proton Events

Progress in Space environment analysis is expected from extensive collaborative efforts with near real ‐time data from spacecraft and ground‐based data with the aim of establishing predictive systems relating the cause (solar activity) to the effect on technological systems and human activity. On the basis of solar energetic particle prediction a unique database of all proton enhancements and their sources covering the period 1970–2002 has been created and statistically analyzed by the team of Athens Cosmic Ray Group in collaboration with the Institute IZMIRAN of Russian Academy Sciences, Institute of Nuclear Physics of Lemonosov and Space Environment Center NOAA. Using this database and following Garcia’s method, that relates thermal parameters to spatial flare dimension, a main parameter that controls proton escaping from the Sun to the interplanetary space, is determined. It is found out that the flare’s loop dimension is a crucial factor for the accelerated protons to run away from the Sun. This stati...