Modeling groundwater potential using novel GIS-based machine-learning ensemble techniques

Abstract Study region The present study has been carried out in the Tabriz River basin (5397 km2) in north-western Iran. Elevations vary from 1274 to 3678 m above sea level, and slope angles range from 0 to 150.9 %. The average annual minimum and maximum temperatures are 2 °C and 12 °C, respectively. The average annual rainfall ranges from 243 to 641 mm, and the northern and southern parts of the basin receive the highest amounts. Study focus In this study, we mapped the groundwater potential (GWP) with a new hybrid model combining random subspace (RS) with the multilayer perception (MLP), naive Bayes tree (NBTree), and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms. A total of 205 spring locations were collected by integrating field surveys with data from Iran Water Resources Management, and divided into 70:30 for training and validation. Fourteen groundwater conditioning factors (GWCFs) were used as independent model inputs. Statistics such as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and five others were used to evaluate the performance of the models. New hydrological insights for the region The results show that all models performed well for GWP mapping (AUC > 0.8). The hybrid MLP-RS model achieved high validation scores (AUC = 0.935). The relative importance of GWCFs was revealed that slope, elevation, TRI and HAND are the most important predictors of groundwater presence. This study demonstrates that hybrid ensemble models can support sustainable management of groundwater resources.