Uncertainties in individual doses in a case–control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and unshared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) unshared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7.