Agent-based modelling of product invention

This study describes a novel simulation model of the process of product invention. Invention is conceptualized as a process of directed evolutionary adaptation, on a landscape of product design possibilities, by a population of profit-seeking agents (inventors). The simulation experiments examine the sensitivity of the rate of advance in product fitness to the choice of search heuristics employed by inventors. The key finding of the experiments is that if search heuristics are confined to those which are rooted in past experience, or to heuristics which merely generate variety, limited product advance occurs. Notable product fitness advance only occurs when inventor's expectations as to the relative fitness of potential product inventions are incorporated into the model of invention. The results demonstrate the importance of human direction and expectations in invention. They also support the importance of formal product / project evaluation procedures in organizations, and the importance of market information when inventing new products.