Simple indicators for projecting short-term dental market fluctuations

Abstract Background There have been fluctuations over time in dental care expenditures in the United States. This project aims to develop simple indicators that are easily available to people and that can be useful to predict short-term market fluctuations. Methods The authors analyzed data concerning 30 variables for the period of 1980 through 2012 for correlations with dental care expenditures during that period, looking for factors that historically moved in a highly correlated manner, either positively or negatively, with dental care expenditures. The authors lagged the factors to determine their potential predictive value for dental care expenditures. Results Personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product emerged as valid leading indicators for predicting short-term dental market fluctuations. Conclusion Two simple measures that are easily available to dentists and others can serve as indicators of short-term fluctuations in the dental marketplace. Their validity as indicators can, and should, be monitored regularly. Practical Implications These indicators can be of significant value for practitioners in being alerted to potential market changes and planning to accommodate these changes. Combined, these factors can tell what changes are coming and when they have arrived.