Early risk markers for severe clinical course and fatal outcome in German patients with COVID-19.

Background Some patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) develop a severe clinical course with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and fatal outcome. Clinical manifestations and biomarkers in early stages of disease with relevant predictive impact for outcomes remain largely unexplored. We aimed to identify parameters which are significantly different between subgroups. Design 125 patients with COVID-19 were analysed. Patients with ARDS (N = 59) or non-ARDS (N = 66) were compared, as well as fatal outcome versus survival in the two groups. Key results ARDS and non-ARDS patients did not differ with respect to comorbidities or medication on developing a fatal outcome versus survival. Body mass index was higher in patients with ARDS versus non-ARDS (p = 0.01), but not different within the groups in survivors versus non-survivors. Interleukin-6 levels on admission were higher in patients with ARDS compared to non-ARDS as well as in patients with fatal outcome versus survivors, whereas lymphocyte levels were lower in the different subgroups (all p<0.05). There was a highly significant 3.5-fold difference in fever load in non-survivors compared to survivors (p<0.0001). Extrapulmonary viral spread was detected more often in patients with fatal outcome compared to survivors (P = 0.01). Further the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in serum showed a significantly more severe course and an increased risk of death (both p<0.05). Conclusions We have identified early risk markers for a severe clinical course, like ARDS or fatal outcome. This data might help develop a strategy to address new therapeutic options early in patients with COVID-19 and at high risk for fatal outcome.