Predicting patients' arrival to the Emergency Department UKMMC

Methods Daily patients’ arrival starting from the year of 2005 to 2009 to the ED of UKM Medical Centre was studied. The patients’ arrival patterns were described. Poisson and Negative Binomial models that are commonly used in modeling frequency were selected to represent the number of patient seeking treatment at ED per day. Maximum likelihood method is used in estimating the parameters for both distributions. Models accuracy were assessed by comparing the predicted arrivals that obtained from the proposed models and observed arrival using goodness of fit test.