The trade-off between mobility and vaccination for COVID-19 control: a metapopulation modeling approach

November 2020 received a string of encouraging results from leading vaccine developers raising hopes for the imminent availability of an effective and safe vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2. In the present work, we discuss the theoretical impact of introducing a vaccine across a range of scenarios. In particular, we investigate how vaccination coverage, efficacy, and delivery time affect the control of the transmission dynamics in comparison to mobility restrictions. The analysis is based on a metapopulation epidemic model structured by risk. We perform a global sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method. Our analysis suggest that the reduction of mobility among patches play a significant role in the mitigation of the disease close to the effect of immunization coverage of 30% achieved in 4 months. Moreover, for an immunization coverage between 20%-50% achieved in the first half of 2021 with a vaccine efficacy between 70%-95%, the percentage reduction in the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is between 30%-50% by the end of 2021 in comparison with the no vaccination scenario.