Pathway signatures derived from on-treatment tumor specimens predict response to anti-PD1 blockade in metastatic melanoma.

Both genomic and transcriptomic signatures have been developed to predict responses of metastatic melanoma to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapies; however, most of these signatures are derived from pre-treatment biopsy samples. Here, we build pathway-based super signatures in pre-treatment (PASS-PRE) and on-treatment (PASS-ON) tumor specimens based on transcriptomic data and clinical information from a large dataset of metastatic melanoma treated with anti-PD1-based therapies as the training set. Both PASS-PRE and PASS-ON signatures are validated in three independent datasets of metastatic melanoma as the validation set, achieving area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.45–0.69 and 0.85–0.89, respectively. We also combine all test samples and obtain AUCs of 0.65 and 0.88 for PASS-PRE and PASS-ON signatures, respectively. When compared with existing signatures, the PASS-ON signature demonstrates more robust and superior predictive performance across all four datasets. Overall, we provide a framework for building pathway-based signatures that is highly and accurately predictive of response to anti-PD1 therapies based on on-treatment tumor specimens. This work would provide a rationale for applying pathway-based signatures derived from on-treatment tumor samples to predict patients’ therapeutic response to ICB therapies. Gene signatures that predict response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapies in melanoma have been based on preclinical models and pre-treatment samples. Here the authors develop pathway-based signatures to predict ICB response in melanoma using on-treatment samples, leading to improved performance.