Prediction of Parkinson's Disease Risk Based on Genetic Profile and Established Risk Factors.

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder, and literature suggests that genetics and lifestyle/environmental factors may play a key role in the triggering of the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a 12-Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) polygenic risk score (PRS) in combination with already established PD-environmental/lifestyle factors. Methods: Genotypic and lifestyle/environmental data on 235 PD-patients and 464 controls were obtained from a previous study carried out in the Cypriot population. A PRS was calculated for each individual. Univariate logistic-regression analysis was used to assess the association of PRS and each risk factor with PD-status. Stepwise-regression analysis was used to select the best predictive model for PD combining genetic and lifestyle/environmental factors. Results: The 12-SNPs PRS was significantly increased in PD-cases compared to controls. Furthermore, univariate analyses showed that age, head injury, family history, depression, and Body Mass Index (BMI) were significantly associated with PD-status. Stepwise-regression suggested that a model which includes PRS and seven other independent lifestyle/environmental factors is the most predictive of PD in our population. Conclusions: These results suggest an association between both genetic and environmental factors and PD, and highlight the potential for the use of PRS in combination with the classical risk factors for risk prediction of PD.