Surrogate endpoints in second-line treatment for mCRC: A systematic literature-based analysis from 23 randomised trials

AbstractPurpose. To evaluate progression-free survival (PFS), overall response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) as potential surrogate endpoints (SEP) for overall survival (OS) in second-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).Methods. A systematic literature search of randomised trials of second-line chemotherapy for mCRC reported from January 2000 to July 2013 was performed. Correlation coefficients weighted by number of patients in the treatment arms between median PFS, ORR and DCR with median OS were estimated.Results. Twenty-three trials reflecting 10 800 patients met the inclusion criteria. Median PFS and OS across all trials were 4.5 months and 11.5 months and median ORR and DCR were 11.4% and 65%, respectively. PFS showed moderate correlation with OS [RPFS = 0.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61–0.82]. In contrast, ORR only weakly correlated with OS (RORR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.38–0.72, n = 22). Despite a small number of studies (n = 10) reporting on DCR, moderate correlation w...