The importance of sample size with regard to the robustness of postmortem reference values

Abstract Evaluating postmortem toxicological results is a challenging task due to multiple factors affecting blood concentrations after death. In order to improve the diagnostic accuracy in cases of suspected fatal intoxication different compilations of postmortem reference drug concentrations are often used. However, it is not clear what constitutes a reliable postmortem reference value. The current study presents reference concentrations for 13 substances from seven substance groups according to a standardized protocol. The reference concentrations were gathered from 3767 autopsy cases and subdivided into intoxications by one substance only (Group A, n = 611), multi-substance intoxications (Group B, n = 1355) and postmortem controls, in which incapacitation by drugs were excluded (Group C, n = 1801). In particular, this study presents statistical information about the precision and conformity change with various sample sizes. Based on the present data >10 detections are usually needed, for the substances examined, to differentiate between intoxication cases and controls. Repeated samplings show that the median of small samples (N= ≤5) has a high variation (normalized interquartile range 138-75%) and that a high number of detections (N=>20) in each group are needed to reduce the variation.