2019-EULAR/ACR classification criteria domains at diagnosis: predictive factors of long-term damage in systemic lupus erythematosus

The objective of this study is to assess the role of the 2019-European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology (2019-EULAR/ACR) classification criteria at diagnosis and its domains in predicting long-term damage in systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE). We performed a retrospective analysis using an electronic chart database utilized in routine clinical care of SLE patients and established in 2000 in a tertiary hospital. Two hundred and nine consecutive SLE patients with disease onset ≥18 years old and long disease duration were included. Cumulative damage at the last visit was scored using the SLICC/ACR-Damage Index (SDI). The median age at SLE diagnosis was 28 years (18-63), disease duration was 14 years (8-25), and 88% were females. Damage (SDI≥1) was observed in 116/209 (55%). Patients with (SDI≥1, n=116) and without damage (SDI=0, n=93) had similar median disease duration [14 (8-25) vs. 12 (8-25) years, p=0.090] and age at diagnosis [23 (18-55) vs. 23 (18-56) years, p=0.998]. No correlation was observed between total 2019-EULAR/ACR score at diagnosis and SDI at last visit (r=0.007, p=0.913). Presence of renal domain at diagnosis was associated with renal damage at last visit (OR=3.6, 95%CI 1.2-10.4, p=0.017) and antiphospholipid antibodies domain predicted neuropsychiatric damage (OR=3.0, 95%CI 1.2-7.6, p=0.015). A ROC analysis identified that a cut-off >24 in 2019-EULAR/ACR score could predict a trend for renal damage (p=0.077) with a lower renal survival (Kaplan-Meier curve) for patients above this limit (p=0.029). A multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that 2019-EULAR/ACR score >24 at diagnosis (OR 4.583, 95%CI 1.052-19.962, p=0.043) was independently associated with renal damage. Specific domains in the 2019-EULAR/ACR criteria at diagnosis were associated with long-term organ-specific damage, particularly renal and neuropsychiatric harm. A 2019-EULAR/ACR score >24 predicted worse renal survival. Key Points • Presence of renal domain of the 2019-EULAR/ACR classification criteria at diagnosis was associated with long-term renal damage. • Presence of antiphospholipid antibodies domain at diagnosis was associated with long-term neuropsychiatric damage. • A 2019-EULAR/ACR overall score >24 at diagnosis was independently associated with renal damage and predicted worse renal long-term survival.