Cigarette Smoking Status, Cigarette Exposure, and Duration of Abstinence Predicting Incident Dementia and Death: A Multistate Model Approach

BACKGROUND To fully characterize the risk for dementia associated with cigarette smoking, studies must consider competing risks that hinder the observation of dementia or modify the chance that dementia occurs (i.e., death). Extant research examining the competing risks fails to account for the occurrence of death following dementia, limiting our understanding of the relation between smoking and dementia. OBJECTIVE Examine the impact of smoking status, lifetime smoking exposure, and duration of abstinence on incident dementia, death following dementia, and death without dementia. METHODS Multi-state models estimated hazard ratios (HR) for 95% confidence interval (CI) of 10,681 cognitively healthy adults for transition from baseline to dementia, baseline to death, and dementia to death based on smoking status, lifetime cigarette exposure, and abstinence duration. RESULTS Compared to never smokers, current smokers had increased risk of dementia (HR = 1.66; 95% CI 1.18- 2.32; p = 0.004), and death from baseline (HR = 2.98; 95% CI 2.24- 3.98; p <  0.001) and incident dementia (HR = 1.88; 95% CI 1.08- 3.27; p = 0.03). Pack years increased risk of death from baseline (HR = 1.01; 95% CI 1.00- 1.01; p <  0.001), but not dementia risk (HR = 1.00; 95% CI 1.00- 1.00; p = 0.78) or death following dementia (HR = 1.01; 95% CI 1.00- 1.01; p = 0.05). Recent quitters (quit <  10 years), compared to never smokers, had increased risk of death after baseline (HR = 2.31; 95% CI 1.55- 3.43; p <  0.001), but not dementia (HR = 1.17; 95% CI 0.73- 1.88; p = 0.52) or death following dementia (HR = 1.01; 95% CI 0.42- 2.41; p = 0.99). CONCLUSION Current smoking increases the risk for dementia and death, but dementia is better attributed to smoking recency than lifetime exposure. Smoking cessation at any age might reduce these risks for cognitively healthy individuals.