Projecting with the Destinie microsimulation model the post-retirement without any severe disabilities life expectancy of the generations born between 1960 and 1990

Fairness of the French retirement system is often analysed through the level of the pension benefits, the standard of living of the retired, or the post-retirement duration. We study another quantitative indicator to reflect the quality of life: time spent in retirement without any severe disabilities. It is computed for generations born between 1960 and 1990 with the Destinie microsimulation model. Disability is simulated at the individual level on a representative sample of the French population based on what is observed in the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (Share). Retirement is simulated in parallel with the hypothesis that all insured people retire as soon as they obtain a full-rate pension. The time spent post-retirement without any severe disabilities results from three components: total life time, prevalence of disabilities and the age at retirement. For each of these components, several trend pattern are tested to project current trends. Under the conservative assumption that transitions to disabilities occur in the future at the same ages as today, life expectancy post-retirement without disabilities is expected to be stable over the generations under review. It should even improve for males from the generation born in 1975 onwards. This result is robust to an extension to these generations of the current increase in the insurance period that is required to retire with a full-rate pension. For all these generations, women enjoy a longer time in retirement without disabilities. But this gender gap is shorter than the one regarding total time spent post-retirement. However, we do not observe a difference between genders in the ratio of the time spent in retirement without disabilities to the total insurance period. When these generations are compared with the generation born in 1950, for men, only those born in 1990 can expect with the current legislation to spend as much time in retirement without disabilities as those born in 1950.