A machine learning-based prediction of the micropapillary/solid growth pattern in invasive lung adenocarcinoma with radiomics

Background Micropapillary/solid (MP/S) growth patterns of lung adenocarcinoma are vital for making clinical decisions regarding surgical intervention. This study aimed to predict the presence of a MP/S component in lung adenocarcinoma using radiomics analysis. Methods Between January 2011 and December 2013, patients undergoing curative invasive lung adenocarcinoma resection were included. Using the "PyRadiomics" package, we extracted 90 radiomics features from the preoperative computed tomography (CT) images. Subsequently, four prediction models were built by utilizing conventional machine learning approaches fitting into radiomics analysis: a generalized linear model (GLM), Naive Bayes, support vector machine (SVM), and random forest classifiers. The models' accuracy was assessed using a receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis, and the models' stability was validated both internally and externally. Results A total of 268 patients were included as a primary cohort, and 36.6% (98/268) of them had lung adenocarcinoma with an MP/S component. Patients with an MP/S component had a higher rate of lymph node metastasis (18.4% versus 5.3%) and worse recurrence-free and overall survival. Five radiomics features were selected for model building, and in the internal validation, the four models achieved comparable performance of MP/S prediction in terms of area under the curve (AUC): GLM, 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.83]; Naive Bayes, 0.75 (95% CI: 0.65-0.85); SVM, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.61-0.83); and random forest, 0.72 (95% CI: 0.63-0.81). External validation was performed using a test cohort with 193 patients, and the AUC values were 0.70, 0.72, 0.73, and 0.69 for Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, and GLM, respectively. Conclusions Radiomics-based machine learning approach is a very strong tool for preoperatively predicting the presence of MP/S growth patterns in lung adenocarcinoma, and can help customize treatment and surveillance strategies.