Can simple non-invasive fibrosis models determine prognostic indicators (fibrosis and treatment response) of primary biliary cholangitis?

Objective The fibrosis stage during diagnosis and the response to ursodeoxycholic acid in the 1st year of treatment are considered to be prognostic indicators in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Determining these indicators with non-invasive models can enable the risk of liver failure to be monitored with continuous variables from the moment of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of non-invasive models for determining the prognostic indicators in patients with PBC. Materials and methods Data from patients with PBC were screened retrospectively. Patients were divided into early (≤2) and advanced (≥3) fibrosis groups. In addition, treatment response status according to the Paris-II criteria and liver failure risk (LFR) according to the UK-PBC score were determined. The S-Index consisting of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), platelets (PLT), and albumin, (S-index: 1000×GGT÷[PLT×Albumin2]), other non-invasive models were calculated. The diagnostic effectiveness of non-invasive indicators to determine the fibrosis stage, response to treatment, and low LFR was analyzed. Results Fifty-three patients were included in the study. The overall mean age at diagnosis was 49.6±13.6 years and 86.8% of the patients (n=46) were female. The S-Index was able to determine fibrosis stage, treatment responded, and patients with low LFR (AUC: 0.747, 0.823, and 0.752; p=0.006, Conclusion S-index is a practical and inexpensive non-invasive model that can identify liver fibrosis and treatment response in patients with PBC. It can be used as a continuous variable prognostic model in PBC.