Reduction of carbon emissions from China's coal-fired power industry: Insights from the province-level data

Abstract: China's coal-fired power industry contributes about half of the country's total emissions and is undergoing active transformation in response to internal improvements related to efficiency and external forces related to the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy into China's grids. Together, these changes are slowing the rate of growth in emissions, but the effects of individual policy measures are difficult to discern. In this study, we develop a high-resolution inventory of emissions factors for the coal-fired power industry in China, apply it to developing province-level emission factors, and demonstrate the relative effectiveness of four policy measures internal to the coal-fired power industry (namely, raising the entry threshold, eliminating outdated capacity, improving existing plants and enhancing operation loads) relative to external contributions from renewable power development in different provinces across China. We provide data for 49 power plant configurations covering 99.7% of the existing coal-fired power fleet in China during the 13th Five Year Plan period (2016–2020). We find that the provincial carbon emission factors of the coal-fired power industry are expected to decrease by 40–60 g CO2eq/kWh in 2020 compared with 2016, corresponding to a total carbon reduction potential of 265 Mt CO2eq across the industry. The four driving factors contribute various reductions in the carbon intensity by province and result in decreases in total emissions in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Beijing. For comparison, we calculate that the decarbonization potential from non-coal power deployment is 593 Mt CO2eq in 2020 compared with 2016, with the province-to-province variability mostly depending on the endowment of the non-coal resources. The variation across the country suggests that strategies for continued decarbonization beyond 2020 should be tailored to the specific situation in each province.