Prevalence and predictors of persistent HIV viremia and viral rebound following universal test and treat: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND There are limited data on individual HIV viral load (VL) trajectories at the population-level following the introduction of universal test and treat (UTT) in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS HIV VLs were assessed among HIV-positive participants at three population-based surveys in four Ugandan fishing communities surveyed between November 2011 and August 2017. The unit of analysis was a visit-pair (two consecutive person-visits), which were categorized as exhibiting durable VL suppression, new/renewed suppression, viral rebound, or persistent viremia. Adjusted relative risks (adjRRs) and 95%CIs of persistent viremia were estimated using multivariate Poisson regression. RESULTS There were 1,346 HIV-positive participants (n=1,883 visit-pairs). The population-level prevalence of durable VL suppression increased from 29.7% to 67.9% during UTT rollout, viral rebound declined from 4.4% to 2.7%, and persistent viremia declined from 20.7% to 13.3%. Younger age (15-29 vs. 40-49 years, adjRR=1.80 [95%CI=1.19-2.71]), male sex (adjRR=2.09 [95%CI=1.47-2.95]), never being married (vs. currently married; adjRR=1.88 [95%CI=1.34-2.62]), and recent migration to the community (vs. long-term resident; adjRR=1.91 [95%CI=1.34-2.73]) were factors associated with persistent viremia. CONCLUSIONS Despite increases in durable VL suppression during roll-out of UTT in hyperendemic communities, a substantial fraction of the population, whose risk profile tended to be younger, male, and mobile, remained persistently viremic.