Counting Transit so that Transit Counts

High quality public transportation depends on sound information for planners to link homes with jobs, services, recreation and all daily needs. Without a good understanding of the demography at a small area level, defining and refining transit service is a gamble. Since 1960, transportation planners have come to depend on data on commuting from the long-form survey, which the US Bureau of the Census (Census) conducts as part of the population census every ten years. Other federal surveys help fill in the details that can’t be realized with such a limited focus survey. But how well do these data sources serve the current needs of the transit industry in terms of national policy making or of metropolitan planning required for federal funding? The results of the Census 2000 underscore questions about the adequacy of planning data and the need for improvements. At the time transit data were released, transit operators in many of the nation’s large and medium sized metropolitan areas were coping with capacity problems due to increased numbers of riders. The census figures, however, showed that the share of commuters using transit had dropped to below five percent for the first time, nationally and had increased in only a hand full of metropolitan areas. The census results were interpreted by some transportation analysts as a vote of no-confidence for transit as a congestion solution. To those in the industry trying to increase capacity to meet demand, the numbers didn’t make sense. To add to the confusion, other surveys conducted by Census are more consistent with the industry’s experience. Information from a supplementary survey to the decennial census released in August 2001, Census 2000 Supplementary Survey (C2SS), shows an increase of 8.3 percent of people commuting via public transportation during the 1990’s. The survey, involving 700,000 households nationwide, is reasonably consistent with annual data reported by American Public Transportation Association (APTA), which identifies a 6.9 percent increase in transit ridership over the same period. Two subsequent surveys, the Census 2001 Supplementary Survey (SS01) and Census 2002 American Community Survey (ACS02), also show transit commuting increases similar to industry data. Evaluations by Census show changes in procedures between Census 2000 and prior long-form surveys. Measures of accuracy for responses to individual long-form questions, also indicate areas of difference between the 1990 and 2000 censuses. These differences may help explain the inconsistency between the industry experience and the 2000 long-form data on transit commuting. So what do the numbers mean? What are we missing? How might we avoid data gaps and conflicts in the future? And, what are possible alternatives to the present situation. The release of commuting data from the 2000 census signaled a slightly declining market share for transit. This news caught the transit industry by surprise as nationwide transit ridership was up at least six percent. The differences between the industry experience and the long-form results were clear, but the possible reasons were less so. Given the importance of the issue and the level of concern, APTA conducted its own review of Census 2000 issues and then contracted for a closer examination of Census results and other related data sources. This report is the result of those efforts. The study has three related goals: to gauge how well transit use is captured by recent national household surveys; to better understand when and how to rely on these sources and possibly other sources of data; and to understand possible steps to take to improve how transit is counted in the future.