Abstract P388: Which Obesity-related Indicator is Better for Predicting Incident Hypertension? Results from the population-based cohort study of Japan

Objective: Obesity is an established risk factor for hypertension (HT), but it is still controversial which obesity-related indicator is superior in predictability. This study compared the predictability among three indicators, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), in the population-based prospective cohort study of Japan, the Suita study. Methods: Participants who had no HT at baseline (1,591 men and 1,973 women) aged 30-84 years were included in this study. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of each indicator for incident HT with the adjustment for age, cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking. Harrell’s C statistics were also estimated for comparison of indicators’ accuracy. Results: During median follow-up of 7.2 years, 1,325 participants (640 men and 685 women) developed HT. HR (95% CI) of BMI, WC and WHtR for incident HT corresponding to a 1 SD increase was 1.25 (1.15-1.35), 1.21 (1.12-1.31) and 1.23 (1.14-1.34) in men while 1.32 (1.22-1.42), 1.27 (1.18-1.37) and 1.32 (1.21-1.44) in women, respectively. Also, C-statistic (95% CI) of BMI, WC and WHtR was 0.64 (0.62-0.66), 0.63 (0.61-0.65) and 0.63 (0.61-0.66) in men while 0.69 (0.67-0.71), 0.69 (0.67-0.71) and 0.69 (0.67-0.71) in women, respectively. Using 95% CI of each C-statistics, there were no statistical differences among three indicators in both men and women. Conclusion: In this study, we showed that all three indicators (BMI, WC and WHtR) were estimated similarly to predict the risk of developing HT in both Japanese men and women.