Predicting Future Intensive Care Demand in Australia

The number of older people in the community is predicted to increase significantly over coming years as a consequence of the natural ageing of the “baby boomers” — those born in the surge of births after World War II. Some increase in life expectancy may have an additional, but lesser, effect. Patients older than 65 years represent a major proportion of intensive care admissions, and an increase in the number of people in the community in this age group will most likely increase demand for ICU beds substantially. There are various scenarios regarding the potential effect of this increased demand on the health care system. Robson 1 suggested that major action is required, while others, such as Sparkes et al 2 and Evans et al, 3 argued that the effects will be relatively minor. Only with accurate prediction of future demand will it be possible to appropriately plan and implement strategies to accommodate or otherwise manage demand. Here, we provide a validated estimate of the future demand for ICU services based on existing, respected datasets. Methods