Biological Responses to COVID-19 Insights from Physiological and Blood Biomarker Profiles

Background: Understanding the spectrum and course of biological responses to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have important therapeutic implications. We sought to characterise biological responses among patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19 based on their serial physiological and blood biomarker values. Methods and Findings: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1335 patients hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (median age 70 years, 56% male), between 1st March and 30th April, 2020. Latent profile analysis was performed on serial physiological and blood biomarkers. Patient characteristics, comorbidities and rates of death and admission to intensive care, were compared between the latent classes. A five class solution provided the best fit. Class 1 “Typical response” exhibited a moderately elevated and rising C-reactive protein (CRP), stable lymphopaenia, and the lowest rates of 14-day adverse outcomes. Class 2 “Rapid hyperinflammatory response” comprised older patients, with higher admission white cell and neutrophil counts, which declined over time, and were accompanied by a very high and rising CRP and platelet count, and the greatest risk of mortality. Class 3 “Progressive inflammatory response” was similar to the typical response except for a higher and rising CRP, though similar mortality rate. Class 4 “Inflammatory response with kidney injury” had prominent lymphopaenia, moderately elevated (and rising) CRP, and severe renal failure. Class 5 “Hyperinflammatory response with kidney injury” comprised older patients, with a very high and rising CRP, and severe renal failure that attenuated over time. Physiological measures did not substantially vary between classes at baseline or early admission. Conclusions and Relevance: Our identification of five distinct classes of biomarker profiles provides empirical evidence for heterogeneous biological responses to COVID-19. Early hyperinflammatory responses and kidney injury may signify unique pathophysiology that requires targeted therapy. Funding Statement: This paper represents independent research part-funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centres at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, London AI Medical Imaging Centre for Value-Based Healthcare, and Guy’s & St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, both with King’s College London. Declaration of Interests: JTHT received research support and funding from InnovateUK, Bristol-Myers-Squibb, iRhythm Technologies, and holds shares <£5,000 in Glaxo Smithkline and Biogen. All other authors declare that they have no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: This project was conducted under London South East Research Ethics Committee (reference 18/LO/2048) approval granted to the King’s Electronic Records Research Interface (KERRI); specific work on COVID-19 research was reviewed with expert patient input on a virtual committee with Caldicott Guardian oversight.