Mediation and Civil War Peace Agreement Implementation

Negotiated settlements after civil war are notoriously unstable and often go unimplemented. This is often due to factors such as credible commitment problems, lack of government capacity to implement, or one of the disputants begins a new wave of violence. Mediation is often utilized as means of ending violence. The dynamics of mediation that allow it to build trust and confidence should also be productive in the post-conflict phase. Mediation is expected to increase the probability agreements will be implemented and reduce the probability of a return to violence. Logit models are specified for the period 1975-2011 with full peace agreements as observations. Mediation is shown to reduce both the probability of an agreement ending (not being implemented) and a return to violence. The models also control for various agreement provisions such as power-sharing, level of democracy, and life expectancy.