[Contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus based on cluster epidemics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou]

Objective: To analyze the contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus in cluster epidemics in Guangzhou and provide evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19. Methods: All the individuals identified to be infected with 2019-nCoV in Guangzhou, including confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases, were included and classified as imported cases and local cases. The first case of each cluster epidemic was defined as index case, and the number of subsequent infections was calculated to evaluate the contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus in the shortest incubation period of 1-3 days. Results: As of 18 February, 2020, a total of 349 cases of 2019-nCoV infection, including 339 confirmed cases (97.13%) and 10 asymptomatic cases (2.87%) were reported in Guangzhou. There were 68 clusters involving 217 2019-nCoV infection cases (210 confirmed cases and 7 asymptomatic cases). The median number of subsequent infections caused by an index case in a cluster epidemic was 3, among which 2 were confirmed cases and 1 was asymptomatic cases, respectively. The average number of contagiousness was 2.18 in shorted incubation period of 1-3 days (The average number of infected cases were 2.18 cases by the index case in a cluster epidemic), the average infection number in family members was 1.86, and the infection ratio of family member transmission was 85.32% (1.86/2.18). The secondary attack rate in close contacts with shortest incubation period of 1-3 days was 17.12%-18.99%, the secondary attack rate in family members was 46.11%-49.56%. Conclusions: The cluster epidemic of COVID-19 in Guangzhou mainly occurred in families, the contagiousness was high. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control to reduce the community transmission of COVID-19.