Numerical modelling for analysis of the effect of different urban green spaces on urban heat load patterns in the present and in the future

Abstract This paper focuses on urban green spaces in terms of climate and human thermal comfort containing their effect on heat load mitigation. It incorporates a modelling study in which the role of green spaces was investigated in terms of heat stress modification by applying MUKLIMO_3 model. During the experiment, the thermal effects of dense trees, scattered trees, grasslands and mixed green infrastructure has been investigated in the case of Szeged (Hungary) and assessed using different climate indices. The investigations encompassed 3 climatological time periods (1981–2010, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and two emission scenarios for future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). It was found that urban green spaces (e.g. parks) generally cool the environment, although, the cooling potential of the different green types differs. The highest reduction of heat load was found in the case of large urban parks comprising of dense trees near the downtown. The spatial extension of detected cooling was found small. However, it would increase during the future, especially in the case of grasslands. For urban planners, it is highly recommended to introduce new green sites within a city and to increase the spatial extension of the existing ones to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change in the urban environment.