Modelo predictivo para mortalidad en adultos hospitalizados con neumonía adquirida en la comunidad

Introduction There is lack of information about predictive variables for pneumonia mortality in the Mexican population. Objective To identify a model for predictive variables for mortality in adults hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Material and methods Case-control study of patients hospitalized with CAP. The cases were incident cases with CAP that died during hospitalization and controls were those that did not die. The patients were followed during the study time until the discharge or outcome of each patient. The association between the independent variables (clinical, severity indices for pneumonia) with the outcome variable (in-hospital mortality) was evaluated by logistic regression. Results The model of associated variables with mortality were stratified age from 50-70 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.35; 95% confidence interval [95% CI: 1.06-5.17) and age >70 years (OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.18-6.37), woman (OR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.11-3.8), antecedent of arterial hypertension (OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.20-0.80), tachycardia (OR: 2.68; 95% CI: 1.16-6.17), tachypnea (OR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.54-5.29), leukocytes ≥ 12,000 (OR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.21-3.87) and urea nitrogen > 30 mg/dL (OR: 4.85; 95% CI: 2.55-9.24). Conclusions The proposed risk model is easy to document with clinical history and routine clinical laboratory variables.