DNA index as prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the COG-TARGET database

This study was aimed to evaluate the value of DNA index(DI) among pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) treated on Children’s Oncology Group (COG) protocols between 2000 and 2015. Retrospective study were analysis among pediatric ALL patients from the TARGET dataset. Totally, 1668 eligible pediatric patients were enrolled in this study. Of them, 993 are male and 675 are female with a median age of 7.6 years old. The median follow-up for those patients was 7.7 years (range 0.1–15.7 years). The probability of 15-year EFS and OS were reported to be 67.5 ± 3.1% and 78.3 ± 2.5%, respectively. BCR/ABL1 fusion gene affected the early treatment response and the survival of childhood ALL. Moreover, those patients with ETV6/RUNX1 fusion gene were also significantly associated with better EFS (HR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.8, P = 0.003) and OS (HR = 0.3, 95%CI 0.2–0.5, P < 0.001) compared to patients with no ETV6/RUNX1. On the contrary, BM NR on Day+ 29 showed a significant decrease in EFS (HR = 3.1, 95%CI 2.1–4.5, P < 0.001) and OS (HR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.1–2.8, P = 0.026). Multivariate analysis showed that DI was significantly associated with better EFS and OS. The threshold effect of DI on poor outcome was significant after adjusting for potential confounders. The adjusted regression coefficient (Log RR) was 0.7 (95%CI 0.1–3.2, P = 0.597) for DI < 1.1 while 8.8 (95%CI 1.4–56.0, P = 0.021) for DI ≥ 1.2 and 0.0 (95%CI 0.0–0.8, P = 0.041) for 1.1 ≤ DI < 1.2. Generalized additive models revealed that the lowest rates of the adverse outcomes estimated to occur among DI between 1.1 and 1.2. For those childhood ALL treated on COG protocols between 2000 and 2015, ETV6/RUNX1 and BM NR were closely related to the prognosis. Moreover, the DI between 1.1 and 1.2 can serve as a significant cut-point discriminating the risk group, which indicated a favourable prognostic factor.