Chest computed tomography semi-quantitative pleural effusion and pulmonary consolidation are early predictors of acute pancreatitis severity

Background: To study the predictive value of semi-quantitative pleural effusion and pulmonary consolidation for acute pancreatitis (AP) severity. Methods: Thorax-abdominal computed tomography (CT) examinations were performed on 309 consecutive AP patients in a single center. Among them, 196 were male, and 113 were female, and the average age was 50+/-16 years. The etiology of AP was biliary in 43.7% (n=135), hyperlipidemia in 22.0% (n=68), alcoholic in 7.4% (n=23), trauma in 0.6% (n=2), and postoperative status in 1.6% (n=5) cases; 24.6% (n=76) of patients did not have specified etiologies. The prevalence of pleural effusion and pulmonary consolidation was noted. The pleural effusion volume was quantitatively derived from a CT volume evaluation software tool. The pulmonary consolidation score was based on the number of lobes involved in AP. Each patient's CT severity index (CTSI), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system, and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scores were obtained. The semi-quantitative pleural effusion and pulmonary consolidation were compared to these scores and clinical outcomes by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Results: In the 309 patients, 39.8% had pleural effusion, and 47.9% had pulmonary consolidation. The mean pleural effusion volume was 41.7+/-38.0 mL. The mean pulmonary consolidation score was 1.0+/-1.2 points. The mean CTSI was 3.7+/-1.8 points, the mean APACHE II score was 5.8+/-5.1 points, and the mean BISAP score was 1.3+/-1.0 points; 5.5% of patients developed severe AP, and 13.9% of patients developed organ failure. Pleural effusion volume and pulmonary consolidation scores correlated to the scores for the severity of AP. In predicting severe AP, the accuracy (AUC 0.839) of pleural effusion volume was similar to that of the CTSI score (P=0.961), APACHE II score (P=0.757), and BISAP score (P=0.906). The accuracy (AUC 0.805) of the pulmonary consolidation score was also similar to that of the CTSI score (P=0.503), APACHE II score (P=0.343), and BISAP score (P=0.669). In predicting organ failure, the accuracy (AUC 0.783) of pleural effusion volume was similar to that of the CTSI score (P=0.473), APACHE II score (P=0.119), and BISAP score (P=0.980), and the accuracy (AUC 0.808) of the pulmonary consolidation score was also similar to that of the CTSI score (P=0.236), APACHE II score (P=0.293), and BISAP score (P=0.612). Conclusions: Pleural effusion and pulmonary consolidation are common in AP and correlated to the severity of AP. Furthermore, the pleural effusion volume and pulmonary consolidation lobes can provide early prediction of severe AP and organ failure.