Polygenic risk scores for kidney function to the circulating proteome, and incident kidney diseases: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed numerous loci for kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR). The relationship of polygenic predictors of eGFR, risk of incident adverse kidney outcomes, and the plasma proteome is not known. We developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) using a weighted average of 1.2 million SNPs for eGFR using the LDpred algorithm, summary statistics generated by a European-ancestry (EA) meta-analysis of the CKDGen Consortium (N=558,423) and UK Biobank GWAS for eGFR (90% of the cohort; N=289,432), followed by best parameter selection using data from the remaining 10% of the UK Biobank (N=32,159). We then tested the association of the PRS among 8,886 EA participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age: 54{+/-}6 years, 53% female) with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), end stage kidney disease (ESKD), kidney failure (KF), and acute kidney injury (AKI). We also examined 4,877 plasma proteins measured at two time points (visit 3 (1993-95) and visit 5 (2011-13)) in relation to the PRS and compared associations between the proteome and eGFR itself. All models were adjusted for age, sex, center, and the first 10 principal components of ancestry. The developed PRS had an R2 for eGFR of 0.07 in ARIC. Over 30 years of follow up, the number of incident CKD, ESKD, KF, and AKI were 2,959, 137, 470, and 1,723, respectively. The PRS showed significant associations with all outcomes: hazard ratios (95% CI) per 1 SD lower PRS were 1.33 (1.28, 1.39), 1.20 (1.00, 1.42), 1.17 (1.06, 1.28), and 1.07 (1.02, 1.12) for incident CKD, ESKD, KF, and AKI respectively. The PRS was significantly associated (Bonferroni threshold P<1.02 x 10-5) with 108 proteins at both time points. The strongest associations were with cystatin-C (a marker of kidney function used in clinical practice), collagen alpha-1 (XV) chain, and desmocollin-2. All significant correlations with the PRS were negative, except those of testican-2 and angiostatin. Correlations of proteins with eGFR were much stronger than those with the PRS. Overall, we demonstrated that the PRS for eGFR is now sufficiently strong to capture risk for a spectrum of incident kidney diseases as well as broadly influence the plasma proteome.