Better at home than in prison? The eects of Electronic Monitoring versus Incarceration on Recidivism in France

Many countries have recently adopted electronic monitoring (EM) as an alternative sentence in order to reduce incarceration while maintaining public safety. However, the empirical evidence on the eects of EM on recidivism (relative to prison) is very scarce worldwide. In this paper, we adress this debated question using quasi-experimental data from France. Our empirical strategy exploits the incremental roll-in of electronic monitoring in France, which started as a local experiment in four courts in 2000-2002, and was later adopted by more and more courts. Our IV estimates show that fully converting prison sentences into electronic monitoring has long-lasting beneficial eects on recidivism, with estimated reductions in probability of reconviction of 6-7 percentage points (9-11%) after five years. These eects are particularly strong on electronically monitored oenders who had already experienced prison (1), were obliged to work while under EM (2), and received unexpected control visits from correctional ocers at home (3). This pattern suggests that both rehabilitation and deterrence are important factors in reducing long-term recidivism, and that electronic monitoring can be a very cost-eective alternative to short prison sentences. However, we fear that the massive development of EM in France in recent years, with shorter and less intensive supervision, may reduce its eectiveness.