Distribution models of temperate habitat-forming species on the continental shelf in eastern Australia: setting the baseline and predicting future changes
2016
Habitat-formers
(e.g.
kelp
beds,
corals,
sessile
invertebrate
assemblages)
are
key
to
the
structure
and
functioning
of
reef
ecosystems
worldwide.
In
southeast
Australia,
a
region
identified
as
a
global
hotspot
for
climate-driven
ocean
warming,
the
structure
and
distribution
of
deep
(>
30
m)
benthic
sessile
communities
are
poorly
known
given
these
habitats
are
hard
to
quantitatively
survey.
Using
high-‐resolution
imagery
of
the
seafloor
from
a
recent
national-scale
AUV‐based
survey
program,
we
establish
a
critical
baseline
about
the
latitudinal
gradient
in
benthic
community
composition
from
27°S
to
43°S
on
the
eastern
seaboard
of
Australia.
Large-scale
latitudinal
variability
between
three
major
community
types
(sub-tropical,
warm
temperate
and
cool
temperate)
mostly
correlates
with
primary
productivity
and
temperature
climatology,
while
local
scale
variability
relates
well
with
depth.
Using
environmental
variables
that
capture
recent
and
future
climatology
both
in
terms
of
means
and
extremes
(frequency
and
magnitude),
we
develop
alternative
distribution
models
for
several
habitat-‐forming
species.
Our
models
characterise
the
optimal
environmental
window
of
individual
morphospecies,
discriminate
between
different
types
of
latitudinal
distribution
(e.g.
truncated
or
continuous),
and
identify
potential
indicator
morphospecies
more
likely
to
respond
to
climate-driven
changes
in
ocean
conditions.
Model
predictions
under
projected
climate
change
provide
some
insights
on
the
potential
effects
of
ongoing
and
future
ocean
changes
on
these
deep
reef
communities.
Our
study
provides
an
important
benchmark
to
detect
and
predict
future
climate-driven
changes
in
southeastern
Australia,
and
our
methodology
has
general
applicability
for
monitoring
of
deep
reef
environments.
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