Pleural effusion as a novel prognostic factor in metastatic thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVE To identify novel prognostic risk factors and compare them with other known prognostic risk factors in follicular cell derived thyroid carcinoma (FDTC) with distant metastases. METHODS A retrospective review was conducted of adult patients with metastatic FDTC seen at a tertiary care center between January 1990 and December 2010. A 15-year Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was created for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Hazard ratios (HR) and P values from Cox proportional hazard models were used with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS There were 143 patients (60.1% male, 39.9% female), of whom 104 (72.7%) patients had papillary, 30 (21.0%) had follicular, 5 (3.5%) had poorly differentiated, and 4 (2.8%) had Hurthle cell cancers. Median length of follow-up was 80.0 months (range 1.0-564.0). The 15-year mortality rate was 32.2% and cancer-specific mortality was 25.2%, with OS and CSS having the same risk factors. Lung was the most common site of metastases in 53 patients (37.1%), and patients with pleural effusions had significantly lower CSS (HR = 5.21, CI = 1.79-15.12). Additional risk factors for a decreased CSS included: older age upon diagnosis (>45 years, HR = 4.15, CI = 1.43-12.02), multiple metastatic locations (HR = 3.75, CI = 1.32-10.67), and incomplete/unknown tumor resection (HR = 2.35, CI = 1.18-4.67). CONCLUSION This study is the first to demonstrate that pleural effusion is a poor prognostic sign in patients with FDTC with distant metastases and compare this risk with other accepted prognostic variables.