Study of influential factors of provincial health expenditure -analysis of panel data after the 2009 healthcare reform in China

BACKGROUND Total Healthcare Expenditure (THE) has increased substantially in all countries. Since the health system reform and health policy environment differ from each country, it is necessary to analyze the motivations of THE in a specific country. METHODS The objective of this study was to analyze the influential factors of Provincial THE (PTHE) per capita in China by using spatiotemporal panel data across 31 provinces (including provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, all called provinces in here) from 2009 to 2016 at the provincial and annual level. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) was used to identify the influential factors of PTHE per capita. RESULTS The number of beds per 10,000 population explained most of the variation of PTHE per capita. The results also showed that health expenditure in China reacts more to mortality compared with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. But mortality and Out-Of-Pocket Payments (OOP) as a percentage of THE were associated with PTHE per capita negatively. The rate of infectious diseases and THE as a percentage of GDP had no statistical significance. And the Proportion of the Population Aged 65 and Over (POP65) impact PTHE per capita positively. But the coefficient was small. CONCLUSIONS In response to these findings, we conclude that the impact of the increasing percentage of OOP in THE diminishes the PTHE. Furthermore, we find that both the "baseline" health level and health provision are positively correlated with PTHE, which outweighs the effect of GDP.