Predictors of in-hospital mortality in covid-19: A study across two peripheral district general hospitals in UK

Aim-The mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has remained a significant medical challenge. Internationally, patient demographics and pre-existing co-morbidities are significant determinants of mortality from COVID-19. The mortality-risk in a local population is difficult to determine. The objective of our study is to examine the risk posed by epidemiological and demographic variables, and co-morbidities in our local population. Method-A retrospective, observational study was conducted on confirmed COVID-19 patients, identified from the local microbiology database. A search of the electronic patient records was performed to collect demographic details and co-morbidities. Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis of the demographic variables and co-morbidities were utilised to calculate the predictive-risk for in-hospital mortality of adult COVID-19 patients. Results-Final analysis included 263 samples. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed using age as an independent categorical predictor with two cohorts – those <60 and those ≥60 years old. Age (2 =17.12, p<0.001) was found to be an independent predictor of mortality – this was independent of sex (2 =1.784, p<0.182). Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score was found to be a significant predictor of adverse outcome. The odds of death for patients with CCI scores 0-4 was less than half (44.8%) of those with CCI scores ≥5 (p=0.005). Patients with no pre-existing medical conditions had a lower mortality-risk (OR=0.181, p=0.022) than those with known medical conditions. Pre-existing renal disease predicted a poor outcome (OR=1.996, p=0.027). The odds of death for the patients coming from their own-home was only 26% of the odds for those from a long-term care-home. Long-term care facility, advanced age (OR=1.058, p <0.001), and long-term oral steroid (OR=3.412, p=0.016) use were all associated with a poor prognosis. Conclusion-People aged ≥60 years, residence in a long-term care-home, pre-existing renal diseases, a high CCI score and long-term oral steroids use were associated with an increased mortality-risk.