An integrated method for critical clearing time prediction based on a model-driven and ensemble cost-sensitive data-driven scheme

Abstract The critical clearing time (CCT) is one of the most important indexes for large-disturbance rotor angle stability margin evaluation. In practice, model-driven methods are usually realized based on simplified models to ease the computational burden, but the accuracy is sacrificed. To solve this problem, a data-driven method is adopted in this paper for fast error correction of a model-driven method, creating an integrated method. Both a reliable accuracy and an acceptable computation speed can be achieved with this integrated method. Meanwhile, involvement of model-driven method helps enhance robustness of the integrated method to training sample insufficiency, measurement error and power system scale. In addition, the data-driven method is further transformed on the basis of a cost-sensitive approach where the error tolerance for different actual CCT values should be differentiated during the training process instead of being treated equally in the common data-driven method. To mitigate the negative effect caused by such transformations, an ensemble learning structure is also constructed. In this paper, an integrated extended equal-area criterion (IEEAC) and an extreme learning machine (ELM) are applied as model-driven and data-driven methods, respectively. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used in the ensemble learning structure construction. Validations show that the proposed integrated method with the transformed data-driven method can improve the CCT prediction accuracy and avoid the polarization of the error distribution.