A New Method for Predicting Coal and Gas Outbursts

In view of the fact that coal and gas outbursts are difficult to predict, a new method for predicting coal and gas outbursts was proposed based on occurrence mechanisms of coal and gas outbursts relating to coal mass strength, gas pressure, and in situ stress. The method revealed that the rate of occurrence of coal and gas outbursts in mines was 5% to 10% and gas pressures for coal and gas outbursts in shallow and deep mines in China were greater than 0.74 and 0.6 MPa, respectively. The prediction index for coal and gas outbursts based on the gas factor was the gas desorption index of drilling cuttings (K1), which is referred to the gas content desorbed from the coal mass in the first minute of drilling. The prediction index for coal and gas outbursts based on coal mass strength was the thickness of a soft layer that could be twisted into powder by hand. Based on many cases of coal and gas outbursts, the critical thickness of the soft layer was found to have been 0.2 m. The prediction index for coal and gas outbursts based on in situ stress was the weight of drilling cuttings, which represented the mass of drilling cuttings per linear metre of boreholes with diameters of 42 or 75 mm. Finally, the new prediction method and prediction index critical values for coal and gas outbursts were verified based on industrial application tests. This method has been widely applied on-site and obtained good prediction results.