The potential global market size and public health value of an HIV-1 vaccine in a complex global market

Abstract An effective HIV vaccine will be essential for the control of the HIV pandemic. This study evaluated the potential global market size and value of a hypothetical HIV vaccine and considered clade diversity, disease burden, partial prevention of acquisition, impact of a reduction in viral load resulting in a decrease in transmission and delay to treatment, health care system differences regarding access, and HIV screening and vaccination, across all public and private markets. Vaccine product profiles varied from a vaccine that would have no effect on preventing infection to a vaccine that would effectively prevent infection and reduce viral load. High disease burden countries (HDBC; HIV prevalence ≥1%) were assumed to routinely vaccinate pre-sexually active adolescents (10 years old), whereas low disease burden countries (LDBC; HIV prevalence rate