Radiomic modeling to predict risk of vertebral compression fracture after stereotactic body radiation therapy for spinal metastases.

OBJECTIVE In the treatment of spinal metastases with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), vertebral compression fracture (VCF) is a common and potentially morbid complication. Better methods to identify patients at high risk of radiation-induced VCF are needed to evaluate prophylactic measures. Radiomic features from pretreatment imaging may be employed to more accurately predict VCF. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a machine learning model based on clinical characteristics and radiomic features from pretreatment imaging to predict the risk of VCF after SBRT for spinal metastases. METHODS Vertebral levels C2 through L5 containing metastases treated with SBRT were included if they were naive to prior surgery or radiation therapy, target delineation was based on consensus guidelines, and 1-year follow-up data were available. Clinical features, including characteristics of the patient, disease, and treatment, were obtained from chart review. Radiomic features were extracted from the planning target volume (PTV) on pretreatment CT and T1-weighted MRI. Clinical and radiomic features selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were included in random forest classification models, which were trained to predict VCF within 1 year after SBRT. Model performance was assessed with leave-one-out cross-validation. RESULTS Within 1 year after SBRT, 15 of 95 vertebral levels included in the analysis demonstrated new or progressive VCF. Selected clinical features included BMI, performance status, total prescription dose, dose to 99% of the PTV, lumbar location, and 2 components of the Spine Instability Neoplastic Score (SINS): lytic tumor character and spinal misalignment. Selected radiomic features included 5 features from CT and 3 features from MRI. The best-performing classification model, derived from a combination of selected clinical and radiomic features, demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.844, specificity of 0.800, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.878. This model was significantly more accurate than alternative models derived from only selected clinical features (AUC = 0.795, p = 0.048) or only components of the SINS (AUC = 0.579, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS In the treatment of spinal metastases with SBRT, a machine learning model incorporating both clinical features and radiomic features from pretreatment imaging predicted VCF at 1 year after SBRT with excellent sensitivity and specificity, outperforming models developed from clinical features or components of the SINS alone. If validated, these findings may allow more judicious selection of patients for prophylactic interventions.