Influence of the Shortening of the Winter Fertilization Prohibition Period in Hungary Assessed by Spatial Crop Simulation Analysis

The Nitrates Directive aims (a) to protect water quality across Europe from nitrates originating from agricultural sources that pollute ground and surface water, and (b) to promote good farming practices. One of the most controversial measures of the directive is the winter prohibition period of fertilization, which has been extended by a month in two steps in recent years. According to the regulation, it is forbidden to apply nitrogen fertilization in Hungary between 31st October and 15th February, even though the winter climate is gradually becoming milder. Using the fertilization data of nearly half a million parcels of land in the Hungarian Nitrate Database, a crop model-based spatial analysis was carried out. Our aim was to test if a shift in the prohibition period starting date from 31st October to 30th November caused any differences in the nitrate amount leached at a 90 cm depth. Detailed nitrate inputs and soil and weather databases were coupled with the 4M crop model. The yield, plant nitrogen uptake, and nitrate leaching under five major crops were simulated, covering a considerable portion of arable land. Shifting the prohibition period starting date did not result in significant changes in the nitrate leaching. Further runs of the 4M model with different weather scenarios are needed to decide whether the modification of the prohibition period significantly affects the amount of nitrate leached.