Modelling Factors Causing Mortality in Oesophageal VaricesPatients in King Abdul Aziz University Hospital.

(RC=1.80500, P-value 0.00014), total bilirubin (RC=0.01371, P-value 0.00016), direct bilirubin (RC=0.01298, P-value 0.00357, serum AST (RC=0.00914, P-value 0.00462), presence of at least bleeding event (RC=1.03373, P-value 0.00613), ascites grade I (RC=-1.57435, P-value 0.00967), SBP (RC=1.47216, P-value 0.01581), platelets count (RC=0.00398, P-value 0.03476) and oesophageal varices (RC = -1.42139, P-value 0.03673). Only 5 factors were likely to affect the mortality status. These factors were encephalopathy, spontaneous SBP, bleeding, ascites and grade of oesophageal varices. Six models were then formulated. Conclusion: These models should be retested in larger study groups to test their reliability in order to use them as surrogate end point in future clinical studies.