Modelos para el seguimiento y evaluación de programas de cáncer en Venezuela

Se presentan resultados de una investigacion orientada al desarrollo de un sistema para seguimiento, evaluacion de efectividad de programas de prevencion y control del cancer en Venezuela. Se elaboraron y verificaron empiricamente modelos de politicas publicas para cada uno de estos tipos de canceres: cuello uterino, mama, pulmon, estomago, prostata. Los analisis de correlacion realizados indicaron que el cancer de estomago esta relacionado positivamente con variaciones en el analfabetismo y el PIB per capita. En el cancer de prostata la correlacion es negativa. El analisis de series de tiempo utilizando las estandarizadas indica que la mortalidad por cancer de pulmon, prostata y mama aumenta con el tiempo. El cancer de estomago la tasa de mortalidad disminuye a medida que pasa el tiempo. En cancer de cuello uterino no hubo relacion con variable temporal. La experiencia alcanzada permitira refinar modelos con informacion mas especifica y extender el analisis a los estados. The paper presents the results of a research project focused on the development of a monitoring and evaluation system for programs of control and prevention of cancer in Venezuela. Policy models were designed and empirically validated for the following types of cancer: uterine cervix, the breast, lung, the stomach and prostate. Analysis of correlation indicated that stomach cancer was positively correlated to variations in illiteracy and GNP per capita. In the case of cancer of prostate the correlation was negative. Analysis of time series using standardized mortality rates indicate that mortality rates for lung cancer, the breast cancer and prostate cancer increased historically. In the case of stomach cancer the mortality rate decreased historically. In the case of the uterine cervix cancer there was no significant relation. The experience acquired in these analyses would be useful to refine policy models using complementary data and including states as units of analysis.