Climate Change and Extreme Weather Eventsin the Moscow Agglomeration
2020
Based on monitoring data (surface observation
network and satellites) and on the results of climate simulations with
the COSMO-CLM and ENVI-MET models, the dynamics of the urban heat island
(UHI) and wet/dry island and their 3D structure for the Moscow
agglomeration are investigated. It is found that the Moscow UHI is
maintained by the anthropogenic heat influx to the urban atmosphere. To
some extent, UHI is self-induced due to the feedback mechanism
(providing approximately 10% of the effect) between temperature and the
downward flux of longwave radiation. The UHI creates a counterclockwise
circulation of airflows. The UHI and its circulation system are
logically considered a product of self-organization, when a meso-beta
scale circulation system is generated under the influence of multiple
actions of small (meso-gamma scale) impacts. The UHI is accompanied by
the wet/dry island. The domed three-dimensional structure of the islands
is disturbed under steady strong winds and is transformed into the plume
structure. The interannual trend towards the UHI strengthening is noted.
This determines the effect of the warming acceleration related to the
global warming and an increase in the discomfort effects in the Moscow
urban system. The intense heat waves (1972, 2002, and 2010) which caused
catastrophic droughts and wildfires in the European part of Russia are
the major factor of vulnerability of the Moscow economy and population.
In addition, the influence of the anomalies is amplified by the urban
environment.
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